AbstractThe insulin-like growth factor (IGF) axis may be involved in the development of type 2 diabetes. We examined the associations of IGF-I and IGF binding proteins (IGFBP)-1 and -3 with diabetes risk and evaluated macronutrient intakes related to the observed associations. In a nested case–control study of the Alpha-Tocopherol, Beta-Carotene Cancer Prevention Study of Finnish male smokers aged 50–69 years, the IGF variables were measured from baseline serum samples for a random sample of 310 men with diabetes diagnosed during a 12-year follow-up and for 310 controls matched by age, recruitment day and intervention group. Diet at baseline was assessed using a validated FFQ. The associations of IGF proteins with diabetes risk were estimated using conditional logistic regression and the associations with macronutrient intakes using linear regression. IGF-I and IGFBP-3 were not associated with the incidence of diabetes. Higher IGFBP-1 was associated with lower diabetes risk in an unadjusted crude model (OR 0·25; 95 % CI 0·15, 0·42 in the highest quartile compared with the lowest), but not after adjustment for BMI (corresponding OR 0·76; 95 % CI 0·41, 1·40). Intakes of carbohydrates, plant protein and milk protein associated positively and intake of meat protein and fat negatively with IGFBP-1 (P<0·005). IGFBP-1 was inversely associated with diabetes risk, but the association was substantially dependent on BMI. The associations between macronutrient intakes and IGFBP-1 may reflect influences of nutrients or foods on insulin concentrations.