Published in

American Phytopathological Society, Plant Disease, 3(102), p. 488-499, 2018

DOI: 10.1094/pdis-12-16-1816-sr

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

IPSIM-Web, An Online Resource for Promoting Qualitative Aggregative Hierarchical Network Models to Predict Plant Disease Risk: Application to Brown Rust on Wheat

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

A qualitative pest modeling platform, named Injury Profile Simulator (IPSIM), provides a tool to design aggregative hierarchical network models to predict the risk of pest injuries, including diseases, on a given crop based on variables related to cropping practices as well as soil and weather environment at the field level. The IPSIM platform enables modelers to combine data from various sources (literature, survey, experiments, and so on), expert knowledge, and simulation to build a network-based model. The overall structure of the platform is fully described at the IPSIM-Web website ( www6.inra.fr/ipsim ). A new module called IPSIM-Wheat-brown rust is reported in this article as an example of how to use the system to build and test the predictive quality of a prediction model. Model performance was evaluated for a dataset comprising 1,788 disease observations at 13 French cereal-growing regions over 15 years. Accuracy of the predictions was 85% and the agreement with actual values was 0.66 based on Cohen’s κ. The new model provides risk information for farmers and agronomists to make scientifically sound tactical (within-season) decisions. In addition, the model may be of use for ex post diagnoses of diseases in commercial fields. The limitations of the model such as low precision and threshold effects as well as the benefits, including the integration of different sources of information, transparency, flexibility, and a user-friendly interface, are discussed.