Published in

Wiley, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, 1(181), p. 107-131, 2017

DOI: 10.1111/rssa.12267

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Parsimonious higher order Markov models for rating transitions

Journal article published in 2017 by S. Baena-Mirabete, P. Puig ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Orange circle
Postprint: archiving restricted
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Summary We propose several parsimonious models for higher order Markov chains, applied to the study of municipal rating migrations in credit risk. In full parameterized Markov chain models, the number of parameters increases very rapidly as the order in the Markov chain grows and this can yield biased estimates when certain sequences of states are rare. For some processes, as in the case of credit ratings, this problem is accentuated because the transitions between distant states are unlikely (persistent transitions). We introduce the short and long persistence models and compare them with the full parameterized Markov chain, achieving a better fit with a lower number of parameters. Furthermore, downgrade momentum effects are found in the rating process, which are consistent with recent empirical findings.