Published in

Nature Research, Scientific Reports, 1(7), 2017

DOI: 10.1038/s41598-017-00536-7

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

A scoring system to predict breast cancer mortality at 5 and 10 years

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Red circle
Postprint: archiving forbidden
Green circle
Published version: archiving allowed
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

AbstractAlthough predictive models exist for mortality in breast cancer (BC) (generally all cause-mortality), they are not applicable to all patients and their statistical methodology is not the most powerful to develop a predictive model. Consequently, we developed a predictive model specific for BC mortality at 5 and 10 years resolving the above issues. This cohort study included 287 patients diagnosed with BC in a Spanish region in 2003–2016. Main outcome variable: time-to-BC death. Secondary variables: age, personal history of breast surgery, personal history of any cancer/BC, premenopause, postmenopause, grade, estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2, TNM stage, multicentricity/multifocality, diagnosis and treatment. A points system was constructed to predict BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. The model was internally validated by bootstrapping. The points system was integrated into a mobile application for Android. Mean follow-up was 8.6 ± 3.5 years and 55 patients died of BC. The points system included age, personal history of BC, grade, TNM stage and multicentricity. Validation was satisfactory, in both discrimination and calibration. In conclusion, we constructed and internally validated a scoring system for predicting BC mortality at 5 and 10 years. External validation studies are needed for its use in other geographical areas.