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Zenodo, 2012

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1067069

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17 Judgmental Heuristics: A Historical Overview

Journal article published in 2012 by Dale W. Griffin, Richard Gonzalez, Derek J. Koehler ORCID, Thomas Gilovich
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Preprint: policy unknown
Question mark in circle
Postprint: policy unknown
Question mark in circle
Published version: policy unknown

Abstract

The Heuristics and Biases approach to judgment under uncertainty began 40 years ago with the publication of a study of the statistical foibles on the part of research psychologists and statisticians (Tversky & Kahneman, 1971). Since then, this research program has substantially influenced the working assumptions of psychologists and economists about the role of normative models of probability judgment and decision making, while providing a new language of judgmental heuristics. We provide a historical overview of the Heuristics and Biases research program that describes its intellectual antecedents and the special role of the rational actor model in shaping its methods, and we review the program's evolution over the course of three waves of research and theory development.