Published in

European Geosciences Union, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 3(15), p. 647-656, 2015

DOI: 10.5194/nhess-15-647-2015

European Geosciences Union, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discssions, 12(2), p. 7197-7224

DOI: 10.5194/nhessd-2-7197-2014

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Debris flows in the Eastern Italian Alps: seasonality and atmospheric circulation patterns

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

The work examines the seasonality and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns associated with debris-flow occurrence in the Trentino–Alto Adige region (eastern Italian Alps). Analysis is based on classification algorithms applied to a uniquely dense archive of debris flows and hourly rain gauge precipitation series covering the period 2000–2009. Results highlight the seasonal and synoptic forcing patterns linked to debris flows in the study area. Summer and fall sea- son account for 92 % of the debris flows in the record, while atmospheric circulation characterized by zonal west, mixed and meridional south and southeast (SE–S) patterns account for 80 %. Both seasonal and circulation patterns exhibit ge- ographical preference. In the case of seasonality, there is a strong north–south separation of summer–fall dominance, while spatial distribution of dominant circulation patterns ex- hibits clustering, with both zonal west and mixed patterns prevailing in the northwest and central east part of the region, while the southern part relates to meridional south and south- east pattern. Seasonal and synoptic pattern dependence is pronounced also on the debris-flow-triggering rainfall prop- erties. Examination of rainfall intensity–duration thresholds derived for different data classes (according to season and synoptic pattern) revealed a distinct variability in estimated thresholds. These findings imply a certain control on debris- flow events and can therefore be used to improve existing alert systems.