Salinity is one of the main factors that explain the distribution of species in the Baltic Sea. Increased precipitation and consequent increase in freshwater inflow is predicted to decrease salinity in some areas of the Baltic Sea. Clearly such changes may have profound effects on the organisms living there. Here we investigate the response of the commonly occurring cyanobacterium Dolichospermum spp. to three salinities, 0, 3 and 6. For the three strains tested we recorded growth, intracellular toxicity (microcystin) and allelopathic properties. We show that Dolichospermum can grow in all the three salinities tested with highest growth rates in the lowest salinity. All strains showed allelopathic potential and it differed significantly between strains and salinities, but was highest in the intermediate salinity and lowest in freshwater. Intracellular toxin concentration was highest in salinity 6. In addition, based on monitoring data from the northern Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland, we show that salinity has decreased, while Dolichospermum spp. biomass has increased between 1979 and 2013. Thus, based on our experimental findings it is evident that salinity plays a large role in Dolichospermum growth, allelopathic properties and toxicity. In combination with our long-term data analyses, we conclude that decreasing salinity is likely to result in a more favourable environment for Dolichospermum spp. in some areas of the Baltic Sea. © 2015 Brutemark et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.