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Satellite NO2 retrievals suggest China has exceeded its NOx reduction goals from the twelfth Five-Year Plan

Journal article published in 2016 by Benjamin de Foy ORCID, Zifeng Lu, David G. Streets
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Preprint: policy unknown
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Postprint: policy unknown
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Published version: policy unknown

Abstract

China’s twelfth Five-Year Plan included pollution control measures with a goal of reducing national emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) by 10% by 2015 compared with 2010. Multiple linear regression analysis was used on 11-year time series of all nitrogen dioxide (NO2) pixels from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) over 18 NO2 hotspots in China. The regression analysis accounted for variations in meteorology, pixel resolution, seasonal effects, weekday variability and year-to-year variability. The NO2 trends suggested that there was an increase in NO2 columns in most areas from 2005 to around 2011 which was followed by a strong decrease continuing through 2015. The satellite results were in good agreement with the annual official NOx emission inventories which were available up until 2014. This shows the value of evaluating trends in emission inventories using satellite retrievals. It further shows that recent control strategies were effective in reducing emissions and that recent economic transformations in China may be having an effect on NO2 columns. Satellite information for 2015 suggests that emissions have continued to decrease since the latest inventories available and have surpassed the goals of the twelfth Five-Year Plan.