Published in
American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters, 21(25), p. 3947-3950, 1998
DOI: 10.1029/1998gl900058
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Aviation Fuel Tracer Simulation: Model Intercomparison and Implications
,
U. Schumann,
M. J. Prather,
J. E. Penner,
M. K. W. Ko,
D. K. Weisenstein,
C. H. Jackman,
G. Pitari ,
I. Köhler,
R. Sausen,
C. J. Weaver,
A. R. Douglass,
P. S. Connell,
D. E. Kinnison
and other authors.
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Abstract
An upper limit for aircraft-produced perturbations to aerosols and gaseous exhaust products in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UT/LS) is derived using the 1992 aviation fuel tracer simulation performed by eleven global atmospheric models. Key findings are that subsonic aircraft emissions: 1) have not be responsible for the observed water vapor trends at 40°N; 2) could be a significant source of soot mass near 12 km, but not at 20 km, 3) might cause a noticeable increase in the background sulfate aerosol surface area and number densities (but not mass density) near the northern mid-latitude tropopause, and 4) could provide a global, annual mean top of the atmosphere radiative forcing up to +0.006 W/m² and −0.013 W/m² due to emitted soot and sulfur, respectively.