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Lippincott, Williams & Wilkins, Epidemiology, p. 1, 2015

DOI: 10.1097/ede.0000000000000423

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A method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations using an individual-based stochastic simulation model:

Journal article published in 2015 by Fumiyo Nakagawa, Rodolphe Thiebaut, Ard van Sighem, Colette Smith, Valentina Cambiano, Oliver Ratmann, Jan Albert, Andrew Amato-Gauci, Daniela Bezemer, Colin Campbell, Daniel Commenges, Martin Donoghoe, Deborah Ford, Roger Kouyos, Rebecca Lodwick and other authors.
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

It is important not only to collect epidemiologic data on HIV but to also fully utilize such information to understand the epidemic over time and to help inform and monitor the impact of policies and interventions. We describe and apply a novel method to estimate the size and characteristics of HIV-positive populations. The method was applied to data on men who have sex with men living in the UK and to a pseudo dataset to assess performance for different data availability. The individual-based simulation model was calibrated using an approximate Bayesian computation-based approach. In 2013, 48,310 (90% plausibility range: 39,900-45,560) men who have sex with men were estimated to be living with HIV in the UK, of whom 10,400 (6,160-17,350) were undiagnosed. There were an estimated 3,210 (1,730-5,350) infections per year on average between 2010 and 2013. Sixty-two percent of the total HIV-positive population are thought to have viral load