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The Royal Society, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 1463(360), p. 1999-2009, 2005

DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2005.1748

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Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa--a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. This has the potential to empower countries to make their own assessments of vulnerability to climate change induced periods of food scarcity.