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The Royal Society, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 1771(280), p. 20131452, 2013

DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.1452

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Predictive systems ecology

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive. ; Fil: Evans, Matthew. Queen Mary University of London. School of Biological and Chemical Sciences; Reino Unido ; Fil: Bithell, Mike. University of Liverpool. Institute of Integrative Biology; Reino Unido ; Fil: Cornell, Stephen. University of Liverpool. Institute of Integrative Biology; Reino Unido ; Fil: Dall, Sasha. University of Exeter. College of Life and Environmental Sciences.Centre for Ecology and Conservation; Reino Unido ; Fil: Diaz, Sandra Myrna. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Córdoba. Instituto Multidisciplinario de Biología Vegetal (p); Argentina ; Fil: Emmott, Stephen. Computational Science Laboratory, Cambridge; Reino Unido ; Fil: Ernande, Bruno. IFREMER. Laboratorie Ressources Halieutiques; Francia ; Fil: Grimm, Volker. Helmhotz Center for Environmental Research, Department of Ecological Modelling, Leipzig; Alemania ; Fil: Hodgson, David J. University of Exeter. College of Life and Environmental Sciences. Centre for Ecology and Conservation; Reino Unido ; Fil: Lewis, Simon L. University of Leeds. Earth and Biosphere Institute; Reino Unido ; Fil: Mace, Georgina M. University College London. Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment; Reino Unido ; Fil: Morecroft, Micheal. Cromwell House; Reino Unido ; Fil: Moustakas, Aristides. Queen Mary University of London. School of Biological and Chemical Sciences; Reino Unido ; Fil: Murphy, Eugene. British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge; Reino Unido ; Fil: Newbold, Tim. United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring, Cambridge; Reino Unido ; Fil: Norris, K. J. The University of Reading, Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development; Reino Unido ; Fil: Petchey, Owen. University of Zurich . Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies; Reino Unido ; Fil: Smith, Matthew. Computational Science Laboratory; Reino Unido ; Fil: Travis, Justin. Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, Aberdeen; Reino Unido ; Fil: Benton, Tim. University of Leeds. School of Biology; Reino Unido