Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

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Cambridge University Press, Epidemiology and Infection, 12(139), p. 1863-1874, 2011

DOI: 10.1017/s0950268811000070

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A novel field-based approach to validate the use of network models for disease spread between dairy herds

Journal article published in 2011 by L. García Álvarez, L. García Álvarez, Cr R. Webb ORCID, M. A. Holmes ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

SUMMARYThe introduction of a centralized system for recording cattle movements in the UK has provided a framework for network-based models for disease spread. However, there are many types of non-reportable contacts between farms which may play a role in disease spread. The lack of real pathogen data with which to test network models makes it difficult to assess whether reported data adequately captures the risk-potential network between farms and improves the accuracy of disease forecasts. A novel multi-disciplinary approach is described whereby network-based models, built upon reported cattle movements and non-reportable local contacts between study farms, are parameterized using field data on bovineStaphylococcus aureusstrains. Reported cattle movements were found to play a role in strain spread between farms, but other contacts via farm visitors were also correlated with strain distribution, suggesting that parameterizing contact networks using cattle-tracing data alone may not adequately capture the disease dynamics.