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BioMed Central, Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, 1(12), 2015

DOI: 10.1186/s12982-015-0025-8

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Pilgrims and MERS-CoV: what’s the risk?

Journal article published in 2015 by Tarek Soliman, Alex R. Cook ORCID, Richard J. Coker
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Abstract The risk of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus spreading globally is worrying, given the annual mass gathering of the Hajj and the year-long influx of pilgrims undertaking the Umrah. Based on the incidence in Saudi Arabia since June 2012, the most likely scenario given recent pilgrim numbers is estimated to be one case per Hajj, and three Umrah pilgrims per year, but which could plausibly reach seven and ten pilgrims respectively. In addition to the 2015 Hajj, national surveillance systems should be on the alert for the low but long-lasting risk of infected pilgrims returning from the Umrah throughout the year.