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Public Library of Science, PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 12(8), p. e3374, 2014

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003374

Oxford University Press (OUP), International Journal of Epidemiology, suppl_1(44), p. i166-i167

DOI: 10.1093/ije/dyv096.226

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Prognostic Factors and Scoring System for Death from Visceral Leishmaniasis: An Historical Cohort Study in Brazil

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

In Brazil, case-fatality rates attributable to visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are high and knowledge of the risk factors associated with death may help reduce mortality. The aim of this study was to construct and validate a scoring system for prognosis of death from VL by using all cases reported in Brazil from 2007 to 2011.In this historical cohort study, 18,501 VL cases were analyzed; of these, 17,345 cases were cured and 1,156 cases caused death. The database was divided into two series: primary (two-thirds of cases), to develop the model score, and secondary (one-third of cases), to validate the scoring system. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify factors associated with death from VL, and these were included in the scoring system.The factors associated with death from VL were: bleeding (score 3); splenomegaly (score 1); edema (score 1); weakness (score 1); jaundice (score 1); Leishmania-HIV co-infection (score 1); bacterial infection (score 1); and age (≤0.5 years [score 5]; >0.5 and ≤1 [score 2]; >19 and ≤50 [score 2]; >50 and