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Nature Research, Scientific Reports, 1(3), 2013

DOI: 10.1038/srep02705

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Dynamically correlated mutations drive human Influenza A evolution

Journal article published in 2013 by F. Tria, S. Pompei ORCID, V. Loreto
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

AbstractHuman Influenza A virus undergoes recurrent changes in the hemagglutinin (HA) surface protein, primarily involved in the human antibody recognition. Relevant antigenic changes, enabling the virus to evade host immune response, have been recognized to occur in parallel to multiple mutations at antigenic sites in HA. Yet, the role of correlated mutations (epistasis) in driving the molecular evolution of the virus still represents a challenging puzzle. Further, though circulation at a global geographic level is key for the survival of Influenza A, its role in shaping the viral phylodynamics remains largely unexplored. Here we show, through a sequence based epidemiological model, that epistatic effects between amino acids substitutions, coupled with a reservoir that mimics worldwide circulating viruses, are key determinants that drive human Influenza A evolution. Our approach explains all the up-to-date observations characterizing the evolution of H3N2 subtype, including phylogenetic properties, nucleotide fixation patterns and composition of antigenic clusters.