Published in

Elsevier, Regulatory Toxicology and Pharmacology

DOI: 10.1016/j.yrtph.2016.03.009

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Influence of the uncertainty in the validation of PBPK models: A case-study for PFOS and PFOA

This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Orange circle
Postprint: archiving restricted
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models are mathematical representations of the human body aimed at describing the time course distribution of chemicals in human tissues. Since parameterization of PBPK models is based on empirical estimation and experimental data, simulation results may have high degree of uncertainty. As a consequence, the reliability of model validation is highly affected. In this study, the parametric uncertainty associated with PBPK models developed for perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) were analyzed and the different validation approaches were discussed for a case-study in Tarragona County (NE of Spain). Physicochemical parameters and dietary intake of PFOS and PFOA were estimated from previous investigations performed in Tarragona County. A sensitivity analysis (SA) was performed to understand the degree of influence of input parameters on the final outcomes. The uncertainty of the PBPK models’ outcome was assessed by propagating the parametric uncertainty using the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) technique. The elimination constants (Tm and Kt) as well as the Free fraction and the Intake, were the most influential parameters according to the SA results, being up to 83% for PFOS and 99.9% for PFOA. The validation of the PBPK model, which was performed using different approaches, showed clear discrepancies in the visual validation when compared with the statistical analysis.