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American Chemical Society, Environmental Science and Technology, 11(37), p. 2442-2452, 2003

DOI: 10.1021/es020677h

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High-Order, Direct Sensitivity Analysis of Multidimensional Air Quality Models

Journal article published in 2003 by Amir Hakami ORCID, M. Talat Odman, M. Talat Odman, Armistead G. Russell
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

A direct sensitivity analysis technique is extended to calculate higher-order sensitivity coefficients in three-dimensional air quality models. The time evolution of sensitivity coefficients of different order is followed alongside that of the concentrations. Calculation of higher-order sensitivity coefficients requires few modifications to the original (first-order) sensitivity modules and is carried out efficiently and with minimal computational overhead. The modeling results (first-, second-, and third-order sensitivity coefficients) for an ozone episode in central California are shown and discussed. Second-order sensitivity coefficients of ozone concentration with respect to domain-wide NO emissions show reasonable agreement with brute-force results and exhibit less noisy behavior. By using second-order sensitivity coefficients the nonlinear responses are better captured and described. For a Taylor series projection from the base case, including the second-order term improves the accuracy. In general, higher-order sensitivity analysis shows a noticeable improvement in terms of accuracy over the conventional first-order analysis. Of particular interest, second-order sensitivity analysis is better equipped to address the nonlinear behavior around the peak ozone in NO(x)-rich plumes.