Elsevier, Global and Planetary Change, 1-4(44), p. 181-193, 2004
DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2004.06.011
Full text: Unavailable
The relationship between cyclones and extreme wind events over Europe under climate change conditions is analysed using global as well as regional climate model simulations. In this study, climate change simulations based on the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 are used. Cyclone systems over the Northeast Atlantic and Europe are identified for the Hadley Centre global general circulation model HadCM3 using an objective algorithm based on the search of the maxima of the Laplacian of the mean sea-level pressure (MSLP). Cyclone tracks are recognized in a second step of the procedure. Extreme cyclone systems are defined via the exceedance of the 95th percentile of the Laplacian of MSLP for each system. Extreme wind events are defined similar by values above the 95th percentile of the daily maximum wind speed at the lowest model level and related to the core pressure of the nearest cyclone system.