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Public Library of Science, PLoS ONE, 8(6), p. e23380, 2011

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0023380

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Estimating Incidence Curves of Several Infections Using Symptom Surveillance Data

Journal article published in 2011 by Edward Goldstein, Benjamin J. Cowling ORCID, Allison E. Aiello, Saki Takahashi, Gary King, Ying Lu, Marc Lipsitch
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

We introduce a method for estimating incidence curves of several co-circulating infectious pathogens, where each infection has its own probabilities of particular symptom profiles. Our deconvolution method utilizes weekly surveillance data on symptoms from a defined population as well as additional data on symptoms from a sample of virologically confirmed infectious episodes. We illustrate this method by numerical simulations and by using data from a survey conducted on the University of Michigan campus. Last, we describe the data needs to make such estimates accurate.