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American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters, 21(42), p. 9440-9448, 2015

DOI: 10.1002/2015gl066281

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ENSO and Meridional Modes: A null hypothesis for Pacific climate variability

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Pacific low-frequency variability (timescale > 8 year) exhibits a well-known El Niño-like pattern of basin-scale sea surface temperature, which is found in all the major modes of Pacific decadal climate. Using a set of climate model experiments and observations, we decompose the mechanisms contributing to the growth, peak and decay of the Pacific low-frequency spatial variance. We find that the El-Niño-like inter-decadal pattern is established through the combined actions of Pacific Meridional Modes (MM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Specifically, in the growing phase of the pattern, sub-tropical stochastic excitation of the MM, and its ENSO-precursor dynamics, become an important source of tropical low-frequency variance (e.g. red noise). Once in the tropics, ENSO amplifies and distributes this low-frequency energy in the extra-tropics through global teleconnections in the peak and decaying phases. In this stochastic red noise model of Pacific climate, the timescale of the MM/ENSO progression and extra-tropical decay (1-2 year) permits the stochastic excitation of the decadal and interdecadal variance.