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The Royal Society, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 1659(370), p. 20130273, 2015

DOI: 10.1098/rstb.2013.0273

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Marine Regime shifts: Drivers and impacts on Ecosystems services

Journal article published in 2015 by J. Rocha, J. Yletyinen, R. Biggs, T. Blenckner ORCID, G. Peterson
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

One contribution of 16 to a Theme Issue 'Marine regime shifts around the globe: theory, drivers and impacts'. Marine ecosystems can experience regime shifts, in which they shift from being organized around one set of mutually reinforcing structures and processes to another. Anthropogenic global change has broadly increased a wide variety of processes that can drive regime shifts. To assess the vulnerability of marine ecosystems to such shifts and their potential consequences, we reviewed the scientific literature for 13 types of marine regime shifts and used networks to conduct an analysis of co-occurrence of drivers and ecosystem service impacts. We found that regime shifts are caused by multiple drivers and have multiple consequences that co-occur in a non-random pattern. Drivers related to food production, climate change and coastal development are the most common co-occurring causes of regime shifts, while cultural services, biodiversity and primary production are the most common cluster of ecosystem services affected. These clusters prioritize sets of drivers for management and highlight the need for coordinated actions across multiple drivers and scales to reduce the risk of marine regime shifts. Managerial strategies are likely to fail if they only address well-understood or data-rich variables, and international cooperation and poly-centric institutions will be critical to implement and coordinate action across the scales at which different drivers operate. By better understanding these under-lying patterns, we hope to inform the development of managerial strategies to reduce the risk of high-impact marine regime shifts, especially for areas of the world where data are not available or monitoring programmes are not in place.