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MDPI, Energies, 9(7), p. 5523-5547, 2014

DOI: 10.3390/en7095523

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Predictive Densities for Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Using Time-Adaptive Quantile Regression

Journal article published in 2014 by Tryggvi Jónsson, Pierre Pinson, Henrik Madsen ORCID, Henrik Aalborg Nielsen
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

A large part of the decision-making problems actors of the power system are facing on a daily basis requires scenarios for day-ahead electricity market prices. These scenarios are most likely to be generated based on marginal predictive densities for such prices, then enhanced with a temporal dependence structure. A semi-parametric methodology for generating such densities is presented: it includes: (i) a time-adaptive quantile regression model for the 5%-95% quantiles; and (ii) a description of the distribution tails with exponential distributions. The forecasting skill of the proposed model is compared to that of four benchmark approaches and the well-known the generalist autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model over a three-year evaluation period. While all benchmarks are outperformed in terms of forecasting skill overall, the superiority of the semi-parametric model over the GARCH model lies in the former's ability to generate reliable quantile estimates.