To target appropriate drug concentrations and to facilitate comparisons between drugs, the potency of propofol must be firmly established. We therefore determined the arterial blood propofol concentration preventing movement in 50% of patients after skin incision and the ability of arterial blood pressure and heart rate to predict movement after incision. Fifteen healthy women scheduled for breast surgery were randomly assigned to computer-targeted propofol blood concentrations. No other drugs were administered. Fifteen minutes after starting the propofol infusion, a 5-cm skin incision was made. Patients were observed for gross purposeful movement for 1 min. Arterial blood was sampled for propofol to confirm steady-state blood concentrations. Arterial blood pressure and heart rate were measured noninvasively. Logistic regression was used to calculate the propofol blood concentrations and arterial blood pressures at which 50% and 95% of patients did not move after skin incision (CP50 and CP95, MABP50 and MABP95, respectively). The CP50 and CP95 values for propofol were 14.3 +/- 1.6 microg/mL (mean +/- SE) and 20.6 microg/mL, respectively. The MABP50 and MABP95 values were 63 +/- 4 mm Hg and 43 mm Hg, respectively. Heart rate did not differ significantly in patients who moved and who did not move. Propofol blood concentrations required to prevent movement in most patients resulted in significant arterial hypotension.