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American Geophysical Union, Water Resources Research, 10(50), p. 7836-7846, 2014

DOI: 10.1002/2014wr015567

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A hidden Markov model combined with climate indices for multidecadal streamflow simulation

Journal article published in 2014 by C. Bracken ORCID, B. Rajagopalan, E. Zagona
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Hydroclimate time series often exhibit very low year-to-year autocorrelation while showing prolonged wet and dry epochs reminiscent of regime shifting behavior. Traditional stochastic time series models cannot capture the regime shifting features thereby misrepresenting the risk of prolonged wet and dry periods, consequently impacting management and planning efforts. Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) annual flow series highlights this clearly. To address this, a simulation framework is developed using a Hidden Markov (HM) model in combination with large scale climate indices that drive multidecadal variability. We demonstrate this on the UCRB flows and show that the simulations are able to capture the regime features by reproducing the multidecadal spectral features present in the data where a basic HM model without climate information cannot.