Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

Published in

Elsevier, Epidemics, 3-4(3), p. 152-158, 2011

DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.05.001

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Incorporating population dynamics into household models of infectious disease transmission

Journal article published in 2011 by K. Glass ORCID, J. M. McCaw ORCID, J. McVernon
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Green circle
Published version: archiving allowed
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Most household models of disease transmission assume static household distributions. Although this is a reasonable simplification for assessing vaccination strategies at a single point in time or over the course of an outbreak, it has considerable drawbacks for assessing long term vaccination policies or for predicting future changes in immunity. We demonstrate that household models that include births, deaths and movement between households can show dramatically different patterns of infection and immunity to static population models. When immunity is assumed to be life-long, the pattern of births by household size is the key driver of infection, suggesting that the influx of susceptibles has most impact on infection risk in the household. In a comparison of 12 countries, we show that both the crude birth rate and the mean household size affect the risk of infection in households.