Published in

European Geosciences Union, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11(16), p. 4143-4156, 2012

DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-4143-2012

European Geosciences Union, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 5(9), p. 6615-6647

DOI: 10.5194/hessd-9-6615-2012

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Deriving global flood hazard maps of fluvial floods through a physical model cascade

Journal article published in 2012 by F. Pappenberger, E. Dutra ORCID, F. Wetterhall, H. L. Cloke
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Abstract. Global flood hazard maps can be used in the assessment of flood risk in a number of different applications, including (re)insurance and large scale flood preparedness. Such global hazard maps can be generated using large scale physically based models of rainfall-runoff and river routing, when used in conjunction with a number of post-processing methods. In this study, the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) land surface model is coupled to ERA-Interim reanalysis meteorological forcing data, and resultant runoff is passed to a river routing algorithm which simulates floodplains and flood flow across the global land area. The global hazard map is based on a 30 yr (1979–2010) simulation period. A Gumbel distribution is fitted to the annual maxima flows to derive a number of flood return periods. The return periods are calculated initially for a 25 × 25 km grid, which is then reprojected onto a 1 × 1 km grid to derive maps of higher resolution and estimate flooded fractional area for the individual 25 × 25 km cells. Several global and regional maps of flood return periods ranging from 2 to 500 yr are presented. The results compare reasonably to a benchmark data set of global flood hazard. The developed methodology can be applied to other datasets on a global or regional scale.