Establishing the role of climate on wine production is one major goal of the winemaking sector. Por-tuguese viticulture plays a key role in national exports of agro-food products. The Minho Wine Region,in particular, produces a unique wine type ‘Vinho Verde’ that has been taking its stand as a prominentinternational brand. The present study aims at improving the understanding of climate-yield relation-ships in this region. A long wine production series (1945–2010) is used and some transformations areundertaken for robust statistical relationships. A stepwise methodology is applied to select regressorsfor logistic modeling of production classes (low, normal and high). New weather regimes are developedto assess large-scale atmospheric forcing and cycles in production are isolated by a spectral analysis. Tenregressors are selected: dryness and hydrothermal indices, 3-yr lagged production, mean temperaturesin March and June, precipitation in June and frequencies of occurrence of two regimes in May, and of onein February and September. Overall, moderate water stress during the growing season, high production3-yrs before, cool weather in February–March, settled-warm weather in May, warm moist weather inJune and relatively cool conditions preceding harvest are generally favorable to high wine production.Some of these relationships demonstrate the singularity of Minho Wine Region and justify the presentstudy. The model shows high skill (72% after cross-validation), stressing not only the important roleplayed by atmospheric conditions, but also its value for prediction and management.