Springer (part of Springer Nature), Population and Environment, 3(35), p. 323-339
DOI: 10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0
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We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify ‘hotspots’ of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hotspot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.