In this paper we report on start-to-end simulation of a next generation light source based on a high repetition rate free electron laser (FEL) driven by a CW superconducting linac. The simulation integrated the entire system in a seamless start-to-end model, including birth of photoelectrons, transport of electron beam through 600 m of the accelerator beam delivery system, and generation of coherent x-ray radiation in a two-stage self-seeding undulator beam line. The entire simulation used the real number of electrons (̃2 billion electrons/bunch) to capture the details of the physical shot noise without resorting to artificial filtering to suppress numerical noise. The simulation results shed light on several issues including the importance of space-charge effects near the laser heater and the reliability of x-ray radiation power predictions when using a smaller number of simulation particles. The results show that the microbunching instability in the linac can be controlled with 15 keV uncorrelated energy spread induced by a laser heater and demonstrate that high brightness and flux 1 nm x-ray radiation (̃1012 photons/pulse) with fully spatial and temporal coherence is achievable.