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American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters, 1(42), p. 129-137

DOI: 10.1002/2014gl062447

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Interdecadal Pacific variability and eastern Australian megadroughts over the last millennium

Journal article published in 2015 by T. R. Vance, J. L. Roberts, C. T. Plummer, A. S. Kiem, T. D. van Ommen ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) influences multidecadal drought risk across the Pacific, but there are no millennial-length, high resolution IPO reconstructions for quantifying long-term drought risk. In Australia, drought risk increases in positive phases of the IPO, yet few suitable rainfall proxies and short (~100 y) instrumental records mean large uncertainties remain around drought frequency and duration. Likewise, it is unknown whether mega-droughts have occurred in Australia's past. In this study, an atmospheric teleconnection in the Indian Ocean mid-latitudes linking East Antarctica and Australia is exploited to produce the first accurate, annually dated millennial-length IPO reconstruction from the Law Dome (East Antarctica) ice core. Combined with an eastern Australian rainfall proxy from Law Dome, the first millennial-length Australian mega-drought (>5 y duration) reconstruction is presented. Eight mega-droughts are identified including one 39 y drought (AD 1174–1212), which occurred during an unprecedented century of aridity (AD 1102–1212).