The (history independent) autocorrelation function for a hydrogen-bonded water molecule pair, calculated from classical molecular dynamics trajectories of liquid water, exhibits a t(-3/2) asymptotic tail. Its whole time dependence agrees quantitatively with the solution for reversible diffusion-influenced geminate recombination derived by Agmon and Weiss [J. Chem. Phys. 91, 6937 (1989)]. Agreement with diffusion theory is independent of the precise definition of the bound state. Given the water self-diffusion constant, this theory enables us to determine the dissociation and bimolecular recombination rate parameters for a water dimer. (The theory is indispensable for obtaining the bimolecular rate coefficient.) Interestingly, the activation energies obtained from the temperature dependence of these rate coefficients are similar, rather than differing by the hydrogen-bond (HB) strength. This suggests that recombination requires displacing another water molecule, which meanwhile occupied the binding site. Because these activation energies are about twice the HB strength, cleavage of two HBs may be required to allow pair separation. The autocorrelation function without the HB angular restriction yields a recombination rate coefficient that is larger than that for rebinding to all four tetrahedral water sites (with angular restrictions), suggesting the additional participation of interstitial sites. Following dissociation, the probability of the pair to be unbound but within the reaction sphere rises more slowly than expected, possibly because binding to the interstitial sites delays pair separation. An extended diffusion model, which includes an additional binding site, can account for this behavior.