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International Union Against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, International Journal of Tuberculosis and Lung Disease, 9(18), p. 1012-1018

DOI: 10.5588/ijtld.13.0851

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Impact and cost-effectiveness of current and future tuberculosis diagnostics: the contribution of modelling

Journal article published in 2014 by D. W. Dowdy, R. Houben, T. Cohen ORCID, M. Pai, F. Cobelens, A. Vassall, N. A. Menzies, G. B. Gomez, I. Langley ORCID, for the Tb Mac meeting participants, S. B. Squire, R. White
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

The landscape of diagnostic testing for tuberculosis (TB) is changing rapidly, and stakeholders need urgent guidance on how to develop, deploy and optimize TB diagnostics in a way that maximizes impact and makes best use of available resources. When decisions must be made with only incomplete or preliminary data available, modelling is a useful tool for providing such guidance. Following a meeting of modelers and other key stakeholders organized by the TB Modelling and Analysis Consortium, we propose a conceptual framework for positioning models of TB diagnostics. We use that framework to describe modelling priorities in four key areas: Xpert® MTB/RIF scale-up, target product profiles for novel assays, drug susceptibility testing to support new drug regimens, and the improvement of future TB diagnostic models. If we are to maximize the impact and cost-effectiveness of TB diagnostics, these modelling priorities should figure prominently as targets for future research.