SAGE Publications, Tropical Conservation Science, 4(6), p. 539-557, 2013
DOI: 10.1177/194008291300600407
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We analyzed potential distribution patterns in the northernmost distribution of American tropical forests in Eastern Mexico of three ungulate species including Odocoileus virginianus, Mazama temama and Pecari tajacu, in response to several physical, climatic, biological, and anthropogenic variables in order to identify environmental factors related to potential distribution and potential key areas for ungulate conservation. Current presence records for these species were gathered, and potential distribution models were built using Maximum Entropy niche modeling (MaxEnt). Model suitability surfaces were used to calculate remaining potential habitat areas in the region, as well as the potential sympatric area and representation of these areas in Natural Protected Areas. Biological and anthropogenic variables were the best species distribution predictors. Landscape composition (the proportion of different land-use and land-cover classes: forest, agriculture, and pasture) within approximately 120 ha, was the most important variable for all models, influencing each species differently with respect to their tolerance to altered habitats. Remaining potential area of all three species is fragmented and has apparently been nearly lost in plains (<14% remaining). Distribution models allowed us to detect an important surface at the western portion of our study area which may function as a large biological corridor that promotes connectivity at the Sierra Madre Oriental mastogeographic province in a region heavily transformed by land use change. In this context of habitat transformation, management focused on promoting quality matrix at the landscape level, promises to be a viable alternative for ungulates conservation in tropical regions of Mexico.