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Elsevier, Ecological Indicators, (43), p. 195-204, 2014

DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.02.011

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Uncertainty associated with river health assessment in a varying environment: The case of a predictive fish-based index in France

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Sensitive biological measures of river ecosystem quality are needed to assess, maintain or restore ecological conditions of water bodies. Since our understanding of these complex systems is imperfect, decision-making requires recognizing uncertainty. In this study, a new predictive multi-metric index based on fish functional traits was developed to assess French rivers. Information on fish assemblage structure, local environment and human-induced disturbances of 1654 French river sites was compiled. A Bayesian framework was used to predict theoretical metric values in absence of human pressure and to estimate the uncertainty associated with these predictions. The uncertainty associated with the index score gives the confidence associated with the evaluation of site ecological conditions.