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Published in

Taylor and Francis Group, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 4(58), p. 755-772, 2013

DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2013.782407

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Climate-driven trends in mean and high flows from a network of reference stations in Ireland

Journal article published in 2013 by Conor Murphy, Shaun Harrigan ORCID, Julia Hall, Robert L. Wilby
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

This paper introduces a reference hydrometric network for Ireland and examines the derived flow archive for evidence of climate-driven trends in mean and high river flows. The Mann-Kendall and Theil-Sen tests are applied to eight hydroclimatic indicators for fixed and variable (start and end date) records. Spatial coherence and similarities of trends with rainfall suggest they are climate driven; however, large temporal variability makes it difficult to discern widely-expected anthropogenic climate change signals at this point in time. Trends in summer mean flows and recent winter means are at odds with those expected for anthropogenic climate change. High-flow indicators show strong and persistent positive trends, are less affected by variability and may provide earlier climate change signals than mean flows. The results highlight the caution required in using fixed periods of record for trend analysis, recognizing the trade-off between record length, network density and geographic coverage.