Understanding regime shifts is important to management. Optimal allocation of fishery effort can be improved if it were known whether or not the regime was positive or negative. This determination is difficult because a high recruitment, when the stock is at a low level of abundance (or vice versa), may be the indication of the onset of a multidecadal regime shift, or just a chance occurrence. Accordingly, the determination of an increase or decrease in productivity from observations independent of those made directly on fish populations is important.