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Oxford University Press, Systematic Biology, 1(61), p. 1-11, 2011

DOI: 10.1093/sysbio/syr074

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Guided Tree Topology Proposals for Bayesian Phylogenetic Inference

Journal article published in 2011 by Sebastian Höhna, Alexei J. Drummond ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Increasingly, large data sets pose a challenge for computationally intensive phylogenetic methods such as Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Here, we investigate the performance of common MCMC proposal distributions in terms of median and variance of run time to convergence on 11 data sets. We introduce two new Metropolized Gibbs Samplers for moving through "tree space." MCMC simulation using these new proposals shows faster average run time and dramatically improved predictability in performance, with a 20-fold reduction in the variance of the time to estimate the posterior distribution to a given accuracy. We also introduce conditional clade probabilities and demonstrate that they provide a superior means of approximating tree topology posterior probabilities from samples recorded during MCMC.