AbstractThe purpose of this study was to create a prognostic model for distant metastasis in patients with locally advanced NPC who accept concurrent chemotherapy combined with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (CCRT) to identify high-risk patients who may benefit from neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT). A total of 881 patients with newly-diagnosed, non-disseminated, biopsy-proven locoregionally advanced NPC were retrospectively reviewed; 411 (46.7%) accepted CCRT and 470 (53.3%) accepted NACT followed by CCRT. Multivariate analysis demonstrated N2–3 disease, plasma Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) DNA > 4000 copies/mL, serum albumin ≤46 g/L and platelet count >300 k/cc were independent prognostic factors for distant metastasis in the CCRT group. Using these four factors, a prognostic model was developed, as follows: 1) low-risk group: 0–1 risk factors; and 2) high-risk group: 2–4 risk factors. In the high-risk group, patients who accepted NACT + CCRT had significantly higher distant metastasis-free survival and progression-free survival rates than the CCRT group (P = 0.001; P = 0.011). This simple prognostic model for distant metastasis in locoregionally advanced NPC may facilitate with the selection of high-risk patients who may benefit from NACT prior to CCRT.