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American Meteorological Society, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 8(30), p. 1891-1900

DOI: 10.1175/1520-0485(2000)030<1891:nitias>2.0.co;2

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Noise-Induced Transitions in a Simplified Model of the Thermohaline Circulation

Journal article published in 1999 by Axel Timmermann ORCID, Gerrit Lohmann ORCID
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

A simplified box ocean model for the North Atlantic is used to study the influence of multiplicative short-term climate variability on the stability and long-term dynamics of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation. A timescale separation between fast temperature ans slow salinity fluctuations is used to decouple the dynamical equations resulting in a multiplicative stochastic differential equation for salinity. As a result the qualitative behaviour and the stability of the thermohaline circulation become a function of the noise level. This can be understood in terms of the concept of noise-induced transitions. Furthermore, the role of non-vanishing noise autocorrelation times on the dynamics of the thermohaline circulation is investigated. Red Noise temperature forcing generates new equilibria, which do not have a deterministic counterpart. Our study suggests that noise-induced transitions might have climate relevance. 1 Introduction Climate reconstructions from gla...