We study the phenomenon of size segregation, observed in models of vibrated granular mixtures such as powders or sand. This consists of the de-mixing of the different components of the system under shaking. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain this phenomenon. However, the criteria for predicting segregation in a mixture, an issue of great practical importance, are largely unknown. In the present paper we study a binary hard-sphere mixture under gravity on a three-dimensional lattice using Monte Carlo simulations. The vertical and horizontal segregation observed during the tap dynamics is interpreted in the framework of a statistical mechanics approach to granular media in the manner of Edwards. A phase diagram for the vertical segregation is derived, and compared with the simulation data.