Abstract Background The population longitudinal study named “The Conselice Study” has been the focus of the present investigation. 65 years old or older participants of this population study on brain aging were followed up for 5 years: 937 subjects completed the follow-up. Relationships of 46 genetic, phenotypic, clinical and nutritional factors on incident cognitive decline and incident dementia cases were investigated. Results A new statistical approach, called the Auto Contractive Map (AutoCM) was applied to find relationship between variables and a possible hierarchy in the relevance of each variable with incident dementia. This method, based on an artificial adaptive system, was able to define the association strength of each variable with all the others. Moreover, few variables resulted to be aggregation points in the variable connectivity map related to cognitive decline and dementia. Gene variants and cognate phenotypic variables showed differential degrees of relevance to brain aging and dementia. A risk map for age associated cognitive decline and dementia has been constructed and will be presented and discussed. Conclusion This map of variables may be use to identify subjects with increased risk of developing cognitive decline end/or dementia and provide pivotal information for early intervention protocols for prevention of dementia.