Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

Published in

Elsevier, Journal of Theoretical Biology, (358), p. 74-84, 2014

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.05.023

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Construction of a mathematical model for tuberculosis transmission in highly endemic regions of the Asia-Pacific

Journal article published in 2014 by James M. Trauer ORCID, Justin T. Denholm, Emma S. McBryde
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Orange circle
Postprint: archiving restricted
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

We present a mathematical model to simulate tuberculosis (TB) transmission in highly endemic regions of the Asia-Pacific, where epidemiology does not appear to be primarily driven by HIV-coinfection. The ten-compartment deterministic model captures many of the observed phenomena important to disease dynamics, including partial and temporary vaccine efficacy, declining risk of active disease following infection, the possibility of reinfection both during the infection latent period and after treatment, multidrug resistant TB (MDR-TB) and de novo resistance during treatment. We found that the model could not be calibrated to the estimated incidence rate without allowing for reinfection during latency, and that even in the presence of a moderate fitness cost and a lower value of R0, MDR-TB becomes the dominant strain at equilibrium. Of the modifiable programmatic parameters, the rate of detection and treatment commencement was the most important determinant of disease rates with each respective strain, while vaccination rates were less important. Improved treatment of drug-susceptible TB did not result in decreased rates of MDR-TB through prevention of de novo resistance, but rather resulted in a modest increase in MDR-TB through strain replacement. This was due to the considerably greater relative contribution of community transmission to MDR-TB incidence, by comparison to de novo amplification of resistance in previously susceptible strains.