Objective: To evaluate socioeconomic, familiar and clinical risk variables associated to caries increment in the children's permanent dentition from seven to 10 years participating in a dental health program. Material and Methods: A sample of 301 children from nine public schools participated in the ‘Always Smiling Program’ took part in this study. They were evaluated for dental caries through dmft and DMF-T indexes along 2 years, and their parents completed a socio-environmental questionnaire containing questions on their income, education and family environment. Survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the effect of the independent variables on caries increment. Results: We verified that socio-environmental variables were not associated with caries increment, while children with experience in primary dentition were 1.5 times more likely to develop caries in permanent dentition compared to those who did not have this experience. Conclusion: Schoolchildren presenting dental caries in primary dentition on baseline had higher risk of developing caries in permanent dentition and this variable should be taken in consideration by managers of dental health programs when prioritizing groups with higher care needs. © 2015, Association of Support to Oral Health Research (APESB). All rights reserved.