Clinicians rely upon the severity of liver fibrosis to segregate patients with well-compensated nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) into sub-populations at high versus low-risk for eventual liver-related morbidity and mortality. We compared hepatic gene expression profiles in high- and low-risk NAFLD patients to identify processes that distinguish the two groups and hence, might be novel biomarkers or treatment targets. Microarray analysis was used to characterize gene expression in percutaneous liver biopsies from low-risk, “mild” NAFLD patients (fibrosis stage 0–1, n=40) and high risk, “severe” NAFLD patients (fibrosis stage 3–4, n=32). Findings were validated in a second, independent cohort and confirmed by real time PCR and immunohistochemistry. As a group, patients at risk for bad NAFLD outcomes had significantly worse liver injury and more advanced fibrosis (severe NAFLD) than clinically-indistinguishable NAFLD patients with a good prognosis (mild NAFLD). A 64 gene profile reproducibly differentiated severe NAFLD from mild NAFLD, and a 20 gene subset within this profile correlated with NAFLD severity, independent of other factors known to influence NAFLD progression. Multiple genes involved with tissue repair/regeneration and certain metabolism-related genes were induced in severe NAFLD. Ingenuity Pathway Analysis and immunohistochemistry confirmed deregulation of metabolic and regenerative pathways in severe NAFLD, and revealed overlap among the gene expression patterns of severe NAFLD, cardiovascular disease, and cancer.