Published in

American Association for the Advancement of Science, Science, 6080(336), p. 455-458, 2012

DOI: 10.1126/science.1212222

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Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000

Journal article published in 2012 by Paul J. Durack, Susan E. Wijffels ORCID, Richard J. Matear
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

Fundamental thermodynamics and climate models suggest that dry regions will become drier and wet regions will become wetter in response to warming. Efforts to detect this long-term response in sparse surface observations of rainfall and evaporation remain ambiguous. We show that ocean salinity patterns express an identifiable fingerprint of an intensifying water cycle. Our 50-year observed global surface salinity changes, combined with changes from global climate models, present robust evidence of an intensified global water cycle at a rate of 8 ± 5% per degree of surface warming. This rate is double the response projected by current-generation climate models and suggests that a substantial (16 to 24%) intensification of the global water cycle will occur in a future 2° to 3° warmer world.