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Wiley, Journal of Business Finance and Accounting, 9-10(37), p. 1177-1217, 2010

DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-5957.2010.02209.x

SSRN Electronic Journal

DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.676327

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Target Price Accuracy in Equity Research

Journal article published in 2010 by Stefano Bonini ORCID, Laura Zanetti, Roberto Bianchini, Antonio Salvi
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

  Analysts’ target prices have received limited attention in academic research. In this paper we try to fill the gap by developing an innovative multi-layer accuracy metric that we test on a novel database. Our analysis shows that forecasting accuracy is very limited: prediction errors are consistent, auto-correlated, non-mean reverting and large (up to 36.6%). The size of forecasting errors increases with the predicted growth in the stock price, the size of the company and for loss making firms. Additionally, the intensity of research and the market momentum negatively affect accuracy. These results suggest that analysts' research is systematically biased which supports theoretical predictions by Ottaviani and Sorensen (2006). Since stock price forecasting is largely an unmonitored activity, market participants may fail in fully understanding this behavior, thus not arbitraging away these inefficiencies.