Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

Published in

Oxford University Press, American Journal of Epidemiology, 1(164), p. 77-84, 2006

DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwj147

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Declining Vulnerability to Temperature-related Mortality in London over the 20th Century

Journal article published in 2006 by Claire Carson, Shakoor Hajat, Ben Armstrong, Paul Wilkinson ORCID
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Orange circle
Postprint: archiving restricted
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

The degree to which population vulnerability to outdoor temperature is reduced by improvements in infrastructure, technology, and general health has an important bearing on what realistically can be expected with future changes in climate. Using autoregressive Poisson models with adjustment for season, the authors analyzed weekly mortality in London, United Kingdom, during four periods (1900-1910, 1927-1937, 1954-1964, and 1986-1996) to quantify changing vulnerability to seasonal and temperature-related mortality throughout the 20th century. Mortality patterns showed an epidemiologic transition over the century from high childhood mortality to low childhood mortality and towards a predominance of chronic disease mortality in later periods. The ratio of winter deaths to nonwinter deaths was 1.24 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.34) in 1900-1910, 1.54 (95% CI: 1.42, 1.68) in 1927-1937, 1.48 (95% CI: 1.35, 1.64) in 1954-1964, and 1.22 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.31) in 1986-1996. The temperature-mortality gradient for cold deaths diminished progressively: The increase in mortality per 1 degree C drop below 15 degrees C was 2.52% (95% CI: 2.00, 3.03), 2.34% (95% CI: 1.72, 2.96), 1.64% (1.10, 2.19), and 1.17% (95% CI: 0.88, 1.45), respectively, in the four periods. Corresponding population attributable fractions were 12.5%, 11.2%, 8.7%, and 5.4%. Heat deaths also diminished over the century. There was a progressive reduction in temperature-related deaths over the 20th century, despite an aging population. This trend is likely to reflect improvements in social, environmental, behavioral, and health-care factors and has implications for the assessment of future burdens of heat and cold mortality.