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American Meteorological Society, Journal of Climate, 19(28), p. 7809-7823, 2015

DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-14-00638.1

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Variability of Hawai??ian winter rainfall during La Nin??a events since 1956

Journal article published in 2014 by Pao-Shin Chu, Pang-Chi Hsu, Kevin Kodama, Chris Foster O'Connor
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

M.S. University of Hawaii at Manoa 2014. ; Includes bibliographical references. ; Rainfall trends in Hawai??i during La Nin??a years have undergone abnormal variability since the early 1980s, making seasonal forecasts more challenging to perform. Traditionally, Hawai??i receives greater than normal precipitation during La Nin??a wet seasons. Recently, the wet seasons of La Nin??a years have experienced less than normal rainfall. A change-point analysis has been performed to determine that the shift in precipitation occurs in 1983, forming two epochs in the study used for comparison. The first epoch runs from 1956 to 1982 and the second epoch spreads from 1983 to 2010. A normalized rainfall anomaly assessment is performed, illustrating the drying trend in Hawai??ian precipitation during La Nin??a years. Furthermore, location specific changes in rainfall anomalies throughout the Hawai??ian Islands are examined. Influenced by variations in tropical sea surface temperatures, circulation features in the northern Pacific Ocean have changed during La Nin??a wet seasons. Strengthening, broadening, and westward shifting of the eastern North Pacific subtropical high, coupled with an eastward elongation and intensification of the subtropical jet stream, are two main influencers when considering the lack of precipitation during the recent La Nin??a wet seasons. Moisture transport analysis shows that variations in circulation structures are the greatest cause for a reduction of moisture in the Hawai??ian region during the second epoch. Additionally, a storm track analysis reveals that the changes found in the aforementioned circulation features are creating a less favorable environment for the development of Kona lows and midlatitude fronts in the vicinity of Hawai??i. A case study concerning North Pacific precipitation analysis of two contrasting years is also performed.