Clinical trials in renal transplantation must use surrogate markers of long-term graft survival if conclusions are to be drawn at acceptable speed and cost. Morphologic changes in transplant biopsies provide the earliest available evidence of damage, and "protocol" biopsies from stable grafts can be used to reduce the number of patients needed in clinical trials. This approach has been inhibited by concerns over safety, but the risk of biopsy of a stable kidney, with no active inflammation or acute functional impairment, has never been formally estimated. ; 16031